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Thousands flee as volcano erupts in Philippines, with experts saying it could EXPLODE in the next few days, spraying lava and hot rocks at 60mph

Lava is flowing out of the Mayon volcano's crater with a spectacular 1,000 metre (3,280 foot) ash plume

An explosive eruption could cause a lava fountain, spraying hot rocks and gases as fast as 60mph

The Philippines is part the 'Ring of Fire' islands in the Pacific that were formed by volcanic activity

PUBLISHED: 03:28, 15 January 2018 | UPDATED: 11:52, 15 January 2018

Thousands fled their homes in terror as lava oozed from a rumbling Philippine volcano today - as experts warned this 'quiet eruption' could lead to a hazardous in the next few days, spewing lava and hot rocks at 60mph.

Lava is slowly flowing out of the Mayon volcano's crater along with a spectacular 1,000 metre (3,280 foot) ash plume rising into the sky, the nation's volcanology institute said.

More than 12,000 people have been ordered to evacuated from a seven kilometre (four mile) danger zone around the crater, as officials warned them of potentially destructive mudflows and toxic clouds.

It is considered the nation's most active volcano

Mayon volcano in the Philippines could explode in the next few days, spraying lava, hot rocks and gases as fast as 60mph on to surrounding towns

'Technically, the volcano is erupting but the eruption is fairly quiet. It may escalate into a hazardous eruption,' Paul Alanis, science research specialist at the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said.

A hazardous or explosive eruption means a lava fountain or a spray of hot rocks and gases that could move as fast as 60 kilometres per hour, he added.

Local disaster officials also warned of volcanic mudflows known as lahars.

'Because of continuous rains in past weeks, debris deposited [on] the slopes of Mayon could lead to lahar flows. If rain does not stop it could be hazardous,' Claudio Yucot, head of the region's office of civil defence, he said.

'Because of continuous rains in past weeks, debris deposited (on] the slopes of Mayon could lead to lahar flows. If rain does not stop it could be hazardous,' Claudio Yucot, head of the region's office of civil defence, he said.

Steam-driven eruptions and rockfalls began over the weekend, and the crater began glowing on Sunday evening, in what Phivolcs said was a sign of the growth of a new lava dome

More than 12,000 people have been ordered to evacuate from a seven kilometre (four mile) danger zone around the crater, as officials warned them of potentially destructive mudflows and toxic clouds

Local disaster officials warned of dangerous volcanic mudflows known as lahars - composed of a slurry of pyroclastic material, rocky debris, and water

The crater began glowing on Sunday evening, in what is believed to be a sign of the growth of a new lava dome

Lava last flowed out of Mayon in 2014 when 63,000 people fled from their homes.

'We think the lava now is more fluid than in 2014. This means the flow can reach further down (the slopes) at a faster rate,' Phivolcs head Renato Solidum said.

'We see similarity with eruptions where the first phase of the activity started with lava flow and culminated in an explosive or hazardous part. That's what we are trying to monitor and help people avoid.'

The Philippines is part of a 'Ring of Fire' of islands in the Pacific that were formed by volcanic activity, and has to contend with 22 active volcanoes.

Mayon has a long history of deadly eruptions.

Four foreign tourists and their local tour guide were killed when Mayon last erupted, in May 2013.

In 1814 more than 1,200 people were killed when lava flows buried the town of Cagsawa.

Local residents have taken refuge in evacuation centres like this one in Camalig town, Albay Province

An explosion in August 2006 did not directly kill anyone, but four months later a typhoon unleashed an avalanche of volcanic mud from Mayon's slopes that claimed 1,000 lives.

In Monday's lava flow, Phivolcs advised residents to use a damp cloth over their mouths and stay indoors to avoid inhaling sulphur dioxide gas.

'If you breathe, you will feel like coughing and clearing your throat. It also stings and is painful in the eyes,' Bert Recamunda, a 55-year-old engineer and Mayon watcher, told AFP after visiting Camalig town near the volcano.

Classes were suspended in parts of Albay province where Mayon is at, and some schools were used as evacuation centres.

'I am afraid. The volcano rumbles like a rolling thunder,' Nerry Briones, 40, told AFP from a classroom in Camalig town, where she and her three children have stayed for the past two nights along with other evacuees.

Four foreign tourists and their local tour guide were killed when Mayon last erupted, in May 2013. Pictured: Evacuees take shelter at a refuge

In Monday's lava flow, experts advised residents to use a damp cloth over their mouths and stay indoors to avoid inhaling sulphur dioxide gas

Atul Shah, the man behind struggling regional retailer, Nakumatt Supermarket has spoken out for the first time about how debt took down his business.

In an interview with Business Daily, Shah says: "We have been bashed unrelentingly. I have chosen not to defend the truth or criticise lies being passed around. If I did so, people would still come up with new conspiracy theories," he said.

We reproduce Business Daily's story:

For more than two decades, Atul Shah perched on the high pedestal of the regional retail business having built eastern Africa's biggest supermarket chain, Nakumatt.

The Financial Times in 2010 even named the Nakumatt CEO as one of the top 50 influential businessmen in the world, alongside Equity Bank's James Mwangi and Nigeria's leading industrialist Aliko Dangote.

But to Nakumatt's suppliers, bankers and creditors, people whose businesses fed off the retailer's runaway success, Mr Shah is now the cause of their sleepless nights.

The retail chain's implosion has left it unable to service its debts. As the Nakumatt Empire diminishes, the 56-year-old entrepreneur has remained in the shadows, never uttering a word in response to the piercing and unrelenting media coverage of the business' miseries.

"Conspiracy theories"

This stance is deliberate, Mr Shah said in an interview at his Ukay Centre office in Westlands, Nairobi.

"We have been bashed unrelentingly. I have chosen not to defend the truth or criticise lies being passed around. If I did so, people would still come up with new conspiracy theories," he said.

At its peak, Nakumatt had 63 stores across the region — Kenya (45), Uganda (nine), Rwanda (three) and Tanzania (six) — with the retailer's management estimating its worth at Sh40.7 billion.

Today, the regional branch count has nearly halved to 34, with 27 stores in Kenya, three in Rwanda and four in Tanzania. Most of these open branches are mere empty shells.

Nakumatt has shed over 1,500 jobs, reducing its staff count to about 2,500. Numerous court cases have piled against the retailer.

But what exactly yanked the wheels off the Nakumatt juggernaut, causing it to run aground? Mr Shah is quite clear on this: the business expanded too fast on borrowed funds; everything was fine until it was not.

According to Mr Shah, the clouds started gathering when Imperial Bank was placed under receivership in October 2015 and grew heavier when Chase Bank suffered a similar fate six months later.

A credit crunch resulting from the enactment of the interest rate capping law in October 2016 made it a perfect storm.

"The Nakumatt engine relied heavily on bank loans to roar on. For a long time, things were fine; we would repay the loans and readily get some more," said Mr Shah, adding that each branch cost about Sh100 million to open.

"When the two banks collapsed, and the new law took effect, money dried up. Despite repaying our loans, nobody was willing to finance us. The cycle stopped abruptly; Nakumatt's fuel was no longer available."

When asked about the exact amount of money the business owes its suppliers and bankers, Mr Shah sidesteps the question, stating that "what matters is that it is a liability."

The retailer is said to be in the red by between Sh30 billion and Sh40 billion.

To jumpstart its stalled engine, Nakumatt went shopping for an investor who was supposed get a slice of the distressed business with a cash injection of around Sh5 billion. This deal aborted and Haku, as Mr Shah is fondly referred to by his close friends and family, is not forthcoming with the reason.

"It just did not happen," he said with a blank face.

The Harun Mwau question

The next question is what impact Harun Mwau's divestiture had on the business.

The former Kilome MP had until 2016 held a 7.7 per cent stake in Nakumatt through Hotnet Limited. He sold his shares to Mr Shah in a transaction that many people construed to have been engineered by the prospective equity investor.

A director of Nanyuki Mall, which recently evicted Nakumatt over unpaid rent, last November claimed that this transaction "diverted (cash) from the business, leading to its collapse."

Mr Shah, smiling somewhat sarcastically, raises both hands in the air but not his voice, and says nothing could be further from the truth.

"Mr Mwau sold his shares to me. I haven't paid him a shilling. In business, people come and go and so his exit was not abnormal," he said, while declining to disclose the transaction amount.

Mr Shah is husband to Harsha (a housewife), and father to Neel and Ankoor. The sons, both under 30, help run the retail chain as business development manager and projects manager respectively.

Bounce back

A fan of volleyball and long-distance driving, the elder Shah remains confident the business will bounce back "one step at a time", a sense of optimism that Neel also shares.

Even the most loyal of Nakumatt's former customers do not appear to share this optimism, going by numerous posts on social media that paint the retailer as dead and buried.

Suppliers and creditors battling to get their dues in court have refused any sort of out-of-court settlement, and want the court to decide on the retailer's fate.

"It has been a tough year but I believe the business will see this through," Neel, a graduate of the London School of Economics, said in a telephone interview last week.

Mr Shah says most of the business's creditors have agreed to "park their old debt" and resume supplying even as the legal process seeking to appoint an administrator rolls on in court.

Seven branches, including Village Market and Ukay in Nairobi, have been restocked, he says, with the rest set to be stocked adequately by the end of next month.

"Our suppliers are very supportive. They want to see us back on our feet. We have created an escrow account from which we are paying their dues on a weekly basis," he said.

Part of the recovery strategy is to shut down more slow-performing outlets "then build from there."

Leaner business

The leaner Nakumatt will also stock less versions of products, sticking to the fast-moving ones.

This strategy rethink, Mr Shah explains, stems from the fact that 70 per cent of the business's volumes come from 30 per cent of the products they stock.

As the interview comes to a close, I ask Mr Shah how he has handled the pressure of seeing his business slip into near insolvency and the stress associated with trying to save it.

"Me? Stressed? No. I am a man who has perfected the art of managing stress. I have been through tens of stressful situations, including Westgate and the Downtown branch fire," he said.

Neel believes the family has been galvanised by the common problem, with a close acquaintance of the Shahs' adding that their circle of friends has become tighter.

As I walked out of Mr Shah's office, I spot a hanging on his hallway with the words: "I'd rather attempt to do something great and fail than attempt to do something small and succeed."

Hisham is free, but Yemen's 'disappeared' crisis continues

Afrah Nasser

Hisham is free, but Yemen's 'disappeared' crisis continues

A Yemeni protester calls for the release of detainees held in a Sanaa prison [AFP]

Date of publication: 17 January, 2018

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Comment: As we celebrate Hisham's release, it must also serve as a reminder of the thousands of forcibly disappeared young men across the country, writes Afrah Nasser.

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Yemen, Sanaa, disppeared, prisoners, Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Hisham al-Omeisy

The words of Martin Luther King, "Free, at last," come into their own, as one Yemen's top social media activists, Hisham al-Omeisy, 38, walks free from a Houthi jail in Sanaa, after five month's detention.

The Houthis did not officially charge him, or allow him access to a lawyer or to his family. His arrest, however, was likely linked to his job at the US embassy in Sanaa. Hisham's case was so sensitive, that we - his friends - couldn't and still can't reveal much of our conversations with his family in Sanaa, without risking their safety.

Hisham doesn't need an introduction.

If you are on Twitter and following news on Yemen, you almost certainly follow Hisham.

Hisham's case attracted widespread attention from human rights groups, and local and international media, because of the significance of his online activism. He has been one of the few top English-speaking commentators inside the country providing almost daily updates on events in Sanaa for his followers and the #Yemen Twitter audience.

As war-torn Yemen faces a dearth of happy news, the Yemen Twitter community celebrated photos this week of Hisham hugging his children for the first time since his detention in August.

But as we celebrate Hisham's release, it must also serve as a reminder of Yemen's "disappeared crisis"; the thousands of forcibly disappeared young men across the country, who don't enjoy Hisham's high media profile, and whose names and faces we don't hear about.

With some 12,000 arrests and more than 3,000 men forcibly disappeared, mothers, sisters and daughters of these abducted men began showing up in front of the central prison or police stations across major Yemeni cities, searching for their kidnapped sons, fathers, brothers and other male relatives. They started to organise and formed a collective named, "Mothers of Abductees Association".

'If the Houthis were considered a governing authority, Yemen would have the fifth highest number of journalists in jail in the world' - CPJ

The Association works as a pressure-group, raising awareness of the missing men, and advocating for their release.

The collective's spokesperson told me in a phone interview that many young men are forcibly disappeared for their political activities, and some for no reason at all.

Read more: Houthis release Yemeni journalist Hisham al-Omeisy after more than 150 days in captivity

In many cases, the mothers have no information or access to their imprisoned relatives - only if they are lucky they might receive some information. The imprisoned young men are held in terrible conditions and exposed to severe torture.

Dozens have been killed under torture, or have to endure a lasting disability from their wounds. Some parents even risk assault if they question Houthi authorities. In this incident, a young forcibly disappeared man's father was assaulted and beaten to death in front of the prison when he went searching for his son.

Journalists face disappearance because of their work, as affirmed by the recently freed Yousef Al-Ajlan who was released from a Houthis prison in Sanaa after a year-long detention.

The Committee to Protect Journalists notes that, "if the Houthis were considered a governing authority, Yemen would have the fifth highest number of journalists in jail in the world".

As the Houthis took over the capital, Sanaa in September 2014, and started a crackdown the press, Yousef wanted to avoid trouble, so he quit journalism and took a taxi driver job instead.

Still, in October 2016, armed men kidnapped Yousef as he was in his taxi in front of his house. During his detention he was severely tortured and threatened with rape, and barred from seeing his family for months.

During this time, Yousef was transferred to several prisons and saw dozens of other detained journalists, accused of the same charges; "working for the enemy (Saudi Arabia) as a journalist". After a year, Yousef was finally freed in November, thanks to a prisoners of war exchange deal between Houthi and anti-Houthi tribes.

The death of Ali Abdullah Saleh and the semi-collapse of his political party, the General Public Congress (GPC) have allowed the Houthis to target many of Saleh's supporters.

My family and friends in Sanaa told me of men being dragged out of cars or public transport at checkpoints, and being interrogated about links to the GPC. Later, they are detained and then vanish. The local press reports Houthi executions and the assassination of Saleh's loyalists.

In Aden, the disappearances crisis is no different from in Sanaa. Mothers and daughters of kidnapped men regularly hold sit-in demonstrations calling for information about their relatives' whereabouts and release.

Hisham's case typifies Yemen's disappearance crisis

Hisham's case typifies Yemen's disappearance crisis.

But amid the unspeakable human suffering in Yemen, the disappearances crisis lacks attention, let alone an effective investigation. Locally, the climate of fear is on the rise and international human rights groups lack constant and full access to Yemen.

Nonetheless, increased pressure and domestic and international condemnation are needed until all of Yemen's disappeared people are found, and freed.

Afrah Nasser is a multi-award winning independent freelance Yemeni journalist, and founder and editor-in-chief of Sana'a Review e-magazine.

Follow her on Twitter: @Afrahnasser

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.

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