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{UAH} Matthew Fisher: Trudeau heads to UN with potentially dangerous African mission still undefined

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Matthew Fisher: Trudeau heads to UN with potentially dangerous African mission still undefined

The 67th UN General Assembly at the United Nations headquarters in New York, Sept. 25, 2012.  Justin Trudeau is heading to the UN General Assembly on Monday.
EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/GettyImagesThe 67th UN General Assembly at the United Nations headquarters in New York, Sept. 25, 2012. Justin Trudeau is heading to the UN General Assembly on Monday.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau goes to New York on Monday to tell the United Nations General Assembly that Canada intends to make a difference on the world stage.

But almost one year after coming to power on a promise that Canada would become a major peacekeeping player after decades of declining interest from Liberal and Conservative governments, the messaging from Ottawa in recent days makes it appear unlikely the prime minister will use the visit to reveal many details about his African strategy, if in fact he has one.

There has been a lot of grave talk by government ministers about how peacemaking today includes the likelihood of combat, and that Canada is ready for that as it prepares to dispatch 600 peacekeepers to Africa.

However, as the realities of how dangerous, complex and costly anything Canada might do there have become more obvious, there has been a perceptible shift in emphasis. Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan has begun telling Canadians that the situation in Africa is so complex that Ottawa needs still more time to get its plans right.

While being left largely in the dark about the government's intentions for them, some senior officers have signalled the government now appears to feel it might be wiser to downscale the potential for combat and emphasize technical expertise and military enablers who would be able to call on helicopters, fixed-wing transport aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft or a mix of all three to help the United Nations Multinational Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).

Instead of focusing on one country such as Mali, which was the talk a few weeks ago, it might be best for Canada to spread its resources across two or more countries in the region.

Chris Roberts, who teaches African politics and Canadian foreign policy in Africa at the University of Calgary, said it is "not futile to go to Africa, but it has to be about more than simply contributing. It has to be a connected effect of forces if Canada is to make a difference."

"A country with modern equipment and capability that can mount logistics operations would be safer doing that" than sending troops out on patrols, said Christopher Chivvis, associate director of international security and defence policy at the Rand Corporation, who has written extensively on the security situation in northern Africa.

"This is not necessarily a second-best option. It would provide real benefit. I would not be surprised if Canada were to go in that direction. It is pretty clear that Canada could have a positive influence across that area of the world."

Roberts suggested that the Trudeau government could be more modest than it has been so far about its plans for Africa.

"The world wonders why Canada is making such a big deal about coming back," he said. "Other countries find it funny that there is this debate about Canada returning to peacekeeping in Africa when African countries and countries such as India and Bangladesh have been there all the time and so have the Dutch, the Germans, the Danes, the Norwegians and the Swedes."

Reports about Mali from the UN and Human Rights Watch detail the targeting of government and UN troops, humanitarian groups and western visitors by Islamic rebels, fighting between the competing jihadist factions, sexual violence against women, female genital mutilation, early and forced marriages, the recruitment of child soldiers, remnants of slavery, drug trafficking, banditry and courts so under-resourced that they barely function — all this in an area where there weather is blistering hot and the people are by every measure among the poorest in the world.

"While Mali is dangerous for peacekeepers, it is nothing like Afghanistan," said Chivvis, who is a political science professor at John Hopkins University. "There is a terrorist risk in the north but this is not Kandahar. If the concern is that Africa might be a repeat of Afghanistan, I want to dispel that."

The details of the Trudeau government's plans for Africa may not be fully revealed for another month or two. Whatever is decided, Roberts, like Chivvis, welcomes it. But Roberts had concerns about how the plans fit in with Canada's other military deployments overseas.

"We are going to be in Latvia, we are in Ukraine and the Middle East and we have the navy in the Mediterranean," he said. "There is a lot going on but there is no master plan or strategy.

"What are the objectives? What are the costs? What kind of forces do we really need? It is not just this government. Canada has never been very good at working this out."

National Post



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